Microsoft concedes more ground to Google

Microsoft announced on Friday that they are ending their Live Search Books and their Live Search Academic projects. Whilst you can't blame them, you can't help but feel slightly disappointed at the increasing dominance of Google on the web. If Microsoft can't give Google a run for their money, who can?

The first comment in response to Microsoft's blog announcement pretty much explains why Live Search Books and Live Search Academic are closing down "...this is first time i hear about book search...". After the initial buzz around the launch of the services, they quickly dropped into the background with few people using them. It wasn't just about monetizing the service, it was about getting people to use them. Personally I found them very un-user-friendly, and at one stage I seem to remember having to access Live Search Academic with Firefox as is it wasn't compatible with the latest version of Microsoft's own Internet Explorer. Whilst there have been numerous academic papers investigating Google Scholar, I can't recollect one investigating Live Search Academic. Most people just didn't like the services.

However, whilst I can't mourn the passing of the poor Live Search Books and Live Search Academic, I can't help but worry about the unstoppable Google behemoth. One of the first questions I ask of any new innovative service is: "Can this break Google's domination?". Unfortunately, all too often, the answer is no.

Google Me: The Movie

As well as the arrival of my Wii Fit (hopefully), tomorrow will also see the launch of Google Me: The Movie on YouTube. Jim Killeen Google's his own name, then travels the world meeting other Jim Killeens...sound familiar? Obviously Killeen is a massive Dave Gorman fan, mixing up Gorman's Googlewhack adventures and Are you Dave Gorman? into one YouTube film.

What is of interest is that the film will be shown for free on YouTube ('for a limited time only'). Which, if Andrew Keen's figures are anything to go by, is unlikely to make Killeen a fortune. It will however provide a documentary that doesn't seem to be particularly original a lot more publicity than it would otherwise have got.

Maybe we will see more films publicising themselves like this in the future: show for a couple of days for free, then let word of mouth drive traffic to the cinemas/DVDs. How much does a Hollywood blockbuster spend on publicity? How much would they lose by making it available on YouTube for a day or two? Obviously Killeen has nothing to lose in comparison to the millions a big studio would be risking, but it would be interesting to see one give it a try.

So, will I take a break from sculpting my body on the Wii fit to watch Google Me The Movie? Possibly, but it will have to be better than the rather annoying web site that goes with it.

The Google Monopoly

Every day I seem to come across some story that reminds me how much I hate the Google monopoly. Today that story was at Search Engine Roundtable: Google advice on linking out from your web site.

The original advice was provided in a Google Groups thread, where someone was concerned about linking to their own sites in case it incurred the wrath of google:

I understand that GOOGLE does not like the exchange of links solely for the purpose of increasing page rank. Can it accurately determine which sites are abusing their guidelines? I have a number of websites that deal with similar products and services and I am reluctant to exchange links because these sites might run the risk of being penalised. I know that I can include rel="nofollow" to overcome this problem but am I being over cautious?

The advice provided was not particularly offensive or restrictive, but what bothers me is that so many people have to be concerned about what one search engine thinks. If Google started penalising links to affiliated web sites, people would take down those links; if Google promoted sites that were covered in leprechauns, people would cover their sites in leprechauns. In a healthy search engine marketplace we would not have the need to be overly concerned about the criteria of any single search engine.

Personally, about 80-90% of my traffic comes from Google. Luckily, as my income is not derived from my web activities and I don't need to be overly concerned about Google's ranking and happily link to my allotment blog which has absolutely nothing to do with the world of technology (except for the fact that it is a blog).

Everybody is Google Crazy!

It would seem as though nobody knows what Google is worth, how else do you explain a 20% increase in their share price in one day? This is not a time for naysayers to eat their words (as Mashable would have us believe), but rather for us to enjoy the spectacle of the total market confusion!

Over the last few months Google's share price has reached the dizzying heights of $747.24, and fallen as low as $412.11. Is there anything left in the market? Probably, but it is not the sort of company you will want to place your life savings in. Volatile share price? Probably haven't seen anything yet.

Google is biased towards geeks?

We are all aware that Google are constantly tweaking their ranking algorithm, and we all Google ourselves occasionally to see where we are coming. Today John Battelle reports that he is top 'John' on Google, proof if it were ever needed that Google is far from perfect. Whilst the introduction of PageRank revolutionised the search industry, John Battelle's rise up the search ranking shows what happens if we confuse those who publish on the web and those who search the web.

Personally, with a rather popular (or is that common??) name, I am just pleased to find Webometric Thoughts makes it on the front page for 'David Stuart', currently number six, but occasionally falling onto the third or fourth page of results.

My Google Shame

A four point manifesto was published on Read Write Web yesterday about how to avoid a Google media monoculture. The manifesto is aimed squarely at the advertising side of the Google behemoth. In truth we are in need of a far wider ranging manifesto, even those who dislike the extent of Google's power find it creeping into their lives.

My own (daily) Google shame includes:
-Google Search Engine (approximately 50% of my searches)
-Blogger
-Google Analytics
-Google Ads
-Google Scholar

Google infects my online life due to a combination of habit, ease, and lack of alternatives. Whilst I can try to wean myself off of search, I have no idea how easy it would be to change the blogging software (without losing everything), whilst once you have started one analytics program you are loathed to change to another which calculates the numbers differently. At least I can hold my head up when emailing (Hotmail), reading my RSS feeds (Newsgator), reading the news (BBC), or doing a bit of social networking (anything but Orkut).

Regarding the 4-point manifesto, in addition to wishing for a wider ranging manifesto there is one point I do disagree with: a push towards cost per action (CPA). Whilst I understand that steps are necessary in preventing people clicking on their own links purely for the ad-revenue, CPA would tip the balance too far in the advertisers favour. Why should I have ads on my site that earn nothing because the advertisers product isn't wanted on closer inspection? It also doesn't bear thinking about how long I would have to wait for someone to not only click on one of the ads, but to actually do something on the advertiser's site. After almost three weeks of Google ads, and 1,438 page impressions, I have only had 2 ads clicked on!

Giga-blast from the past

It is all too easy to forget about some of the alternative search engines out there, and I must admit that I can't remember the last time I used Gigablast. It was therefore good to read on ResearchBuzz that Gigablast are now offering site search, which I have now added to the right-hand frame of my blog (too often people overlook the blog search in the blogger toolbar/banner).

Gigablast seems to have had a bit of make-over since I last visited (when it looked something like THIS), and now it even has a very limited API. Personally I would like to see the API extended and a few advanced operators, surely that's an easy way of getting a competitive advantage over the other search engines.

Personally I hate the growth of Google search, and love any opportunity to support other search engines.

Google shares about to fall below $400

The Google share price is now the lowest it has been since October 2006, with some analysts predicting that it has another 20% to go! In the same way no-one knew how quickly the price would rise, no-one has a clue about how far it would fall. Even my own, rather negative, opinion now seems extremely optimistic.Today is likely to see the price fall below $400, and all this before the impact of a Microsoft buyout of Yahoo and a downturn in the US economy has yet to hit.

Whilst I find it hard to believe the price will fall much lower than $300 nothing would shock me now, I am just pleased that Google is losing a bit of its shine and look forward to their having a rocky ride in the future.

A response to Google's latest logo!

Boo, hiss.

Really obvious anniversary logos are just getting on my nerves these days.
I want less of this:

And more of this (or this):

In fact the frog is such an annoying logo I will probably be forced to use more alternative search engines than usual today.

Reflections on Google's Share Price

A posting by TechCrunch has caused me to reflect once more on Google's share price. I have posted on the Google Share price twice previously:
- How quickly could Google stock crash? (when they crossed the $600 mark at the beginning of October)
- Google shares at $700 (at the end of October)
Whilst I initially said that I would (theoretically) sell at $700 and never look back, the rapid growth made me think it would probably be worth hanging around for the $1,000. My first instincts, however, were correct, reminding us once more of the dangers of being too greedy on the stock exchange. Now, with Google shares falling rapidly to $495 the question on everyones lips is how much further will they fall?

Whilst Google shares have lost a third of their value they are only back to their August value. The rapid rise can be seen as a momentary aberration, any big downturn in the economy is yet to show in the share price. So my latest Google share prediction:
The shares will bob around the $500 mark until Microsoft's buyout of Yahoo is confirmed, at which point it was drop down to the $450 mark (possibly even as low as $400. Extremely slow growth, or even recession in the US will then see shares fall to $350.
What can Google do? Buying Yahoo would be seen as desperation, and I doubt they could match Microsoft's offer. Basically they have to just keep doing what they are doing and hope that more people don't start questioning whether or not they are living up to 'do no evil'. Personally I find myself slowly breaking the Google spell and typing ask.com more often.

Google is Unhappy...Good.

Personally I wondered how much an effect a Yahoo-Microsoft merger would have on the Google train, but Google's blog reaction seems to suggest they are definately worried and are going to try and play on consumers' lingering anti-Microsoft feelings. Although I wonder whether Google should really be playing the anti-monopoly card? Definate case of glass houses.

Google's Social Graph API

The blogosphere never sleeps, and the big story always appears just after you log-off. One such story was the launch of Google's Social Graph API, which all the big names blogged about shortly after I last checked my newsgator feeds on Friday (GigaOM, ReadWriteWeb, TechCrunch).

As a researcher who studies so-called web 2.0 technologies I am very excited, although as web users it may be time to be mildly concerned (if you weren't already).

Whilst Google will only be drawing together publicly available information, to a certain extent such information has previously been private due to the difficulty in collecting it. If an academic wanted to create something similar, I can imagine them having a lot of problems getting it past an ethics committee.

There is only one story: Microsoft offer $44.6bn for Yahoo!

I have not had a chance to check out the blogosphere today, but I am guessing that there is only one big story, Microsoft's offer of $44.6bn in cash and shares for Yahoo. Whilst the rumour has been spreading for a while that either Google or Microsoft would buy out Yahoo, it is still a shock to read that the offer has been made. Personally I would like to see Yahoo compete successfully as an independent company, but if it has to be bought I would rather see it bought by Microsoft than Google.

Google is too powerful a web presense, especially in the realm of search. Having a single organisation that provides access to all the information on the web doesn't really bare thinking about, but that is the situation we seem to be (sleep)walking towards. Surely we have passed the point where Google's success in web search has meant that it has broken its "do no evil" philosophy.

This is the wake-up call that we need to start breaking the Google addiction. Personally I will be heading to Ask.com for my searching...as long as I remember.

Lego Google

The Google 'special occassion' logos can often be a bit tiresome. After all, I don't actually need a snowman to let me know its christmas, or a pumpkin to remind me I am liable to have scrounging children banging on my door. However, I guess most people don't have a diary with the 50th birthday of Lego written in it:

Please continue with more interesting logos Google.

Google retaliates: reported collateral damage

According to Mashable some Google users are reporting receiving a large number of messages claiming their searches are looking like automated requests. If Google continues with a tightened security system there will be repercusions for those webometrician's who use scrapers rather than the Google API, but more importantly, Google may use it as an opportunity to encourage/force users to log-on: Surely if you log-on, there is less chance of receiving 'automated request' accusations.

Google takes on Wikipedia...or should that be Helium.com?

Google have annouced that they will be releasing (at some point in the future) Knol, a tool that will enable users to write articles on topics they are hopefully knowledgable about and want to publish:

Our goal is to encourage people who know a particular subject to write an authoritative article about it.

The incentives to participate are the inclusion of your name, rather than the virtual anonymity of wikipedia, and you will be able to place ads on your articles if you wish to make some money.

It not surprising that Knol is already getting a lot of coverage in the Blogosphere, due to it being one of Google's babies, but it is by no means original. Whilst it looks as though Knol will have a better facilities and provides the users with more rights to their content, in essense it is pretty much the same as Helium.com. Whilst Helium has some good articles, for the most part they are very poor, and I think the same will be true of Knol. Whether Knol is a success will depend on the ranking system and whether enough people get involved.

Personally I don't think Wikipedia has anything to worry about yet, although Helium will have to up its game.

Google gDisk

Google plans a remote storage service...

Am I the only person who deliberately avoids many of Google's services, however good they are, in an attempt to temper the beast's power?

Google Shares at $700

Just over three weeks ago, as Google shares passed $600, analysts were predicting that they could reach $700 next year. I guess this just shows that really analysts don't know what on earth they are talking about. The markets are far too complex for anyone to really have an idea what is going on, we all just keeping making rather uneducated guesses most of which will turn out to be wrong, and those that chance on the right result will inevitably be thought of as geniuses.

I still think, as I did three weeks ago, that the Google price is over-inflated and there will be an inevitable crash. The only problem is, we just don't know when. Whilst I previously said that I would sell at $699 and never look back, now it is at that price you have to think it must be worth hanging on until it reaches the inevitable predictions of $800, or $1,000. But there again the market always looks stable before the crash appears, and when the crash starts its too late to off-load.

Luckily for me the whole game is theoretical, and I can just watch from the sidelines, but if I was so rash as to make a prediction it would go something like this:

Now the $700 mark has been reached relatively easily, and the $1,000 mark is in the market's sites, the market will go a little crazy until it reaches the $1,000 mark...possibly to coincide with Christmas. The price will then slow down and, given time to reflect, people will realise they have all got carried away. At this point people will try and sell their shares, unfortunately everyone will be trying to sell their shares, and the Google price will crash. The fear that they have overpaid will spread to shares in other Internet businesses, and those shares will also see a massive dip in share prices. It will quickly become known as bubble 2.0.

Obviously this is just one of a million scenarios, but it is always worth having a stab at what will happen. If you get it right there is a cushy job at the London Stock Exchange and you are hailed as a prophet, if you get it wrong then no one remembers anyway.

China redirects: Could my ISP do the same?

The big news in the blogosphere this afternoon seems to be Chinese surfers being redirected from the US search engines to Baidu, with many suggesting that it is a reaction to George Bush recognising the Dalai Lama. Whilst the blogosphere is unsurprisingly outraged, personally I quite like the idea of having my ISP stopping me going to Google.

We all have certain URLs we type into the address bar automatically. If I am searching for something I find myself typing 'google.com' without a thought for Ask, MSN, Yahoo, or any of the thousand other search engines available. If I am momentarily at a loss as to what to do next I find myself returning to my emails for the umpteenth time, or checking my bloglines for the zillionth time. If my ISP forced me to use another search engine every now and again, or forced me to have reasonable periods of time elapse before returning to the same web site again and again, I am sure I would utilise the web much more productively.

Yes, I know, civil liberties, blah blah blah...I'm just saying that there is an up side.

Don't go the way of Jaiku: JUST SAY NO

One of the things that really annoys me is the way so many of the start-ups are willing to sell out as soon as one of the big three comes knocking on the door with an open cheque book. The latest acquisition is Jaiku by Google. It seems as though the aim for start-ups these days is not to be successful and take the web by storm, but rather be successful, attract the attention of one of the big three, and then sell out at the first opportunity.

Whilst it currently says that services will continue running the way they always have, the truth is that they won't; they never do. Six months down the line, if not before, Jaiku users will be asked to start using a Google user name (as happened with blogger previously), and you will need a Google email account, and any password reminders or update information will be sent to your Gmail account, and slowly your whole world will turn Google.

How quickly could Google stock crash?

Google shares have crossed the $600 mark. It is now officially more valuable than FedEx, MacDonalds, Coke, Intel, IBM and Wal-Mart, and analysts have predicted it could reach a share price of $700 next year. Whilst the chances are that the analysts' 'predictions' will help the Google share price to reach $700 next year, personally I would sell at $699 and never look back. Google is, to misuse the phrase: oversexed, overpaid and over here.

Oversexed. Google has had excessive amounts of good will from web users of the years, and this cannot continue. Whilst the good will was initially based on the quality of its search results and its 'do no evil' philosophy, the search engine results which once stood out are now little better than those of other search engines, and its 'do no evil' philosophy fails to stand up to scrutiny. Its continued support relies as much on its being perceived as the good-guy in relation to Microsoft's bad-guy rather than any reality, and as it becomes as big as Microsoft it will be increasingly find a less forgiving audience.

Overpaid. There is little doubt that Google has a massive online presence with its fingers in a million different pies, however most important to Google are its search engine and the Google Ads. Whilst the search engine provides an outlet for the Google Ads, its domination also provides the strong brand image that encourages people to use the ads that are then embedded in so many other web pages. However web users are a fickle bunch, and use of a service today does not necessarily mean that the service will be used tomorrow. The rise of sites like Facebook shows how quickly new companies can become major players, and just around the corner may be an idea that totally changes how we use the web, and the advertisers will want their ads on that site, not on Google.

Over here. As well as paying for the current Google company, people are paying for a organisation that they hope will keep growing. However the European and North American markets that Google has such a strong foothold in will soon stop growing; all those who will get the Internet will have the Internet. Attempts to enter the emerging markets in the far east are fraught with dangers as it has to compromise with more restrictive governments at the expense of its image in the west.

The Google share price is based on a myth, that the web will continue to be used in the way it is today, and if there are changes Google will be at the front. However, changes are likely to come from outside Google, and if the competitor holds its nerve and doesn't sell then the Google share prices start will start falling, and then they will fall hard.

People are paying for the Google myth and if it shows any weakness there is not a lot left.

Catching up with Google Search

My inability to have successfully found a decent mobile RSS feed reader means that everytime I have even a couple of days off I return to a bloglines account that has thousands of posts waiting to be read...nonetheless, three days later, I am finally on top of them all again.

The good news that I have returned to is that Google Search are opening up more of their data for university researchers, this following quickly on the heels of Microsoft's new Webmaster Portal. Although the two programs are aimed at different communities, they are both likely to open up a wealth of information to those interested in webometric research.

Whilst access to the search engine data is welcomed, I'm guessing that the more sensitive additional information about how search engines are crawling and indexing web pages will continue to be a secret, and such information is perceived as necessary in the scientific community if much of the research is to be taken seriously.