Webometric Thoughts

September 18, 2008

Google Shares Tumbling!

Filed under: Google,share price — admin @ 8:00 am

Google is the sort of company you either love or hate. It’s therefore not surprising that people keep an eye on it’s share price, cheering on its rise or fall depending one’s inclination. Personally I cheer on its fall, and it’s tumbling again.

In the current volatile market it seems Google is likely to dip to its lowest price for a year. The rallying of the price in April (when Mashable told the naysayers to eat their words) seems to have been a brief reprieve. The next big marker to look out for after today will be the 300 mark.

April 19, 2008

Everybody is Google Crazy!

Filed under: Google,share price — admin @ 11:40 am

It would seem as though nobody knows what Google is worth, how else do you explain a 20% increase in their share price in one day? This is not a time for naysayers to eat their words (as Mashable would have us believe), but rather for us to enjoy the spectacle of the total market confusion!

Over the last few months Google’s share price has reached the dizzying heights of $747.24, and fallen as low as $412.11. Is there anything left in the market? Probably, but it is not the sort of company you will want to place your life savings in. Volatile share price? Probably haven’t seen anything yet.

March 11, 2008

Google shares about to fall below $400

Filed under: Google,share price — admin @ 8:19 am

The Google share price is now the lowest it has been since October 2006, with some analysts predicting that it has another 20% to go! In the same way no-one knew how quickly the price would rise, no-one has a clue about how far it would fall. Even my own, rather negative, opinion now seems extremely optimistic.Today is likely to see the price fall below $400, and all this before the impact of a Microsoft buyout of Yahoo and a downturn in the US economy has yet to hit.

Whilst I find it hard to believe the price will fall much lower than $300 nothing would shock me now, I am just pleased that Google is losing a bit of its shine and look forward to their having a rocky ride in the future.

February 5, 2008

Reflections on Google’s Share Price

Filed under: Google,Microsoft,Yahoo,share price — admin @ 9:55 am

A posting by TechCrunch has caused me to reflect once more on Google’s share price. I have posted on the Google Share price twice previously:
- How quickly could Google stock crash? (when they crossed the $600 mark at the beginning of October)
- Google shares at $700 (at the end of October)
Whilst I initially said that I would (theoretically) sell at $700 and never look back, the rapid growth made me think it would probably be worth hanging around for the $1,000. My first instincts, however, were correct, reminding us once more of the dangers of being too greedy on the stock exchange. Now, with Google shares falling rapidly to $495 the question on everyones lips is how much further will they fall?

Whilst Google shares have lost a third of their value they are only back to their August value. The rapid rise can be seen as a momentary aberration, any big downturn in the economy is yet to show in the share price. So my latest Google share prediction:
The shares will bob around the $500 mark until Microsoft’s buyout of Yahoo is confirmed, at which point it was drop down to the $450 mark (possibly even as low as $400. Extremely slow growth, or even recession in the US will then see shares fall to $350.
What can Google do? Buying Yahoo would be seen as desperation, and I doubt they could match Microsoft’s offer. Basically they have to just keep doing what they are doing and hope that more people don’t start questioning whether or not they are living up to ‘do no evil’. Personally I find myself slowly breaking the Google spell and typing ask.com more often.

October 31, 2007

Google Shares at $700

Filed under: Google,share price — admin @ 4:13 pm

Just over three weeks ago, as Google shares passed $600, analysts were predicting that they could reach $700 next year. I guess this just shows that really analysts don’t know what on earth they are talking about. The markets are far too complex for anyone to really have an idea what is going on, we all just keeping making rather uneducated guesses most of which will turn out to be wrong, and those that chance on the right result will inevitably be thought of as geniuses.

I still think, as I did three weeks ago, that the Google price is over-inflated and there will be an inevitable crash. The only problem is, we just don’t know when. Whilst I previously said that I would sell at $699 and never look back, now it is at that price you have to think it must be worth hanging on until it reaches the inevitable predictions of $800, or $1,000. But there again the market always looks stable before the crash appears, and when the crash starts its too late to off-load.

Luckily for me the whole game is theoretical, and I can just watch from the sidelines, but if I was so rash as to make a prediction it would go something like this:

Now the $700 mark has been reached relatively easily, and the $1,000 mark is in the market’s sites, the market will go a little crazy until it reaches the $1,000 mark…possibly to coincide with Christmas. The price will then slow down and, given time to reflect, people will realise they have all got carried away. At this point people will try and sell their shares, unfortunately everyone will be trying to sell their shares, and the Google price will crash. The fear that they have overpaid will spread to shares in other Internet businesses, and those shares will also see a massive dip in share prices. It will quickly become known as bubble 2.0.

Obviously this is just one of a million scenarios, but it is always worth having a stab at what will happen. If you get it right there is a cushy job at the London Stock Exchange and you are hailed as a prophet, if you get it wrong then no one remembers anyway.

October 25, 2007

Who really won Facebook?

Filed under: Microsoft,MySpace,facebook,share price,social web — admin @ 8:30 am

You couldn’t really describe the Microsoft investment in Facebook as breaking news, the story seems to have been going on for weeks. The final outcome, a 1.6% stake for $240 million, valueing Facebook at $15 billion. If Facebook is worth $15 billion, then I’m the Queen of Sheba.

Whilst I think that it is an outrageous price, it will probably work out quite well for Microsoft as it will tie Facebook into their adverts for the forseeable future. Whereas I don’t think it is necessarily a good deal for Facebook, they should have sold a little bit more whilst they had the chance, their stock is unlikely to be riding this high forever and they need to capitalise on it ASAP. Zuckerberg talks about going public in two years, by which point it will probably be worth half as much.

The other big social networking sites are going to continue innovating, new social networking sites will enter the market, the mobile market is going to become increasingly important, and teens are going to decide they want to hang out somewhere different to their parents. The market is constantly shifting, but the $15billion price tag seems to reflect a continued status quo. Yesterday Techcrunch published the growth rates of a number of different social sites, and the fastest by far is IMEEM a site that has managed to pass me by up to now. Whilst I have yet to have a close look at IMEEM, it serves to illustrate the point about emerging sites; it may be the next big thing, it may not, the point is nothing will stay the same.

However the future of social networking pans out, one thing is for sure: Rupert Murdoch got MySpace for a bargain price.

October 9, 2007

How quickly could Google stock crash?

Filed under: Google,share price — admin @ 9:36 am

Google shares have crossed the $600 mark. It is now officially more valuable than FedEx, MacDonalds, Coke, Intel, IBM and Wal-Mart, and analysts have predicted it could reach a share price of $700 next year. Whilst the chances are that the analysts’ ‘predictions’ will help the Google share price to reach $700 next year, personally I would sell at $699 and never look back. Google is, to misuse the phrase: oversexed, overpaid and over here.

Oversexed. Google has had excessive amounts of good will from web users of the years, and this cannot continue. Whilst the good will was initially based on the quality of its search results and its ‘do no evil’ philosophy, the search engine results which once stood out are now little better than those of other search engines, and its ‘do no evil’ philosophy fails to stand up to scrutiny. Its continued support relies as much on its being perceived as the good-guy in relation to Microsoft’s bad-guy rather than any reality, and as it becomes as big as Microsoft it will be increasingly find a less forgiving audience.

Overpaid. There is little doubt that Google has a massive online presence with its fingers in a million different pies, however most important to Google are its search engine and the Google Ads. Whilst the search engine provides an outlet for the Google Ads, its domination also provides the strong brand image that encourages people to use the ads that are then embedded in so many other web pages. However web users are a fickle bunch, and use of a service today does not necessarily mean that the service will be used tomorrow. The rise of sites like Facebook shows how quickly new companies can become major players, and just around the corner may be an idea that totally changes how we use the web, and the advertisers will want their ads on that site, not on Google.

Over here. As well as paying for the current Google company, people are paying for a organisation that they hope will keep growing. However the European and North American markets that Google has such a strong foothold in will soon stop growing; all those who will get the Internet will have the Internet. Attempts to enter the emerging markets in the far east are fraught with dangers as it has to compromise with more restrictive governments at the expense of its image in the west.

The Google share price is based on a myth, that the web will continue to be used in the way it is today, and if there are changes Google will be at the front. However, changes are likely to come from outside Google, and if the competitor holds its nerve and doesn’t sell then the Google share prices start will start falling, and then they will fall hard.

People are paying for the Google myth and if it shows any weakness there is not a lot left.

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